miércoles, 18 de abril de 2012

The "warm up" for Egyptian presidential election.

For some months now, the world has been following Egypt's political transition with attention. After intense moments of armed conflict, treats of civil war, many victims and a real demonstration of virtual mobilization, Egypt now prepares itself for it's first democratic presidential election for years.

Surely this process will not be easy. As many dictators, Mubarak has supporters who are trying to get into the new government. On the other hand, it's very complicated to organize a fair election when the country is divided into many fractions (these go much further than the religion), and to unit this by law and by principles of democracy is not that simple.

An example of this is the last decision by the country's supreme election commission to bar 10 candidates from the electoral race, including the controversial candidate of Muslim Brotherhood, Khairat Al-Shater (number 2 after Mubarak), the popular salafi Sheikh Hazem Abu Ismail, and the former intelligence chief in the Mubarak era, Omar Suleiman. They were the three leading candidates.

Their candidacy were not considered for different reasons. On the one hand, Al-Shater was barred because of his political disqualification of 7 years for being an ex convict. He received a secret amnesty of the military commission, but the election commission considers that it's not valid and it should be given by a court. On the other, Abu Ismail can't be a candidate because his mother had a double citizenship before her death, and this violate the rule that no candidate can have a spouse or relatives with double citizenship. In Suleiman's case, 31 signatures was missing in the province of Asiut to have the 30.000 needed to present a formal candidacy.

Although the fact that all the candidates will appeal this decision, it's not possible to demand in the ordinary court against the electoral commission's decision. That's why it can be considered as a final decision.

After this change in the electoral landscape, the bans leave a less controversial field to contest the 23-24 May presidential poll. Amr Moussa, a former foreign minister and ex-head of the Arab League, is neither supported by the Islamists nor by revolutionaries, nor is he particularly close to the military commission. This distance from all parties could make him a compromise figure. His strongest competitor is Mohamed Morsi, which is not a well-known figure, but will have the full backing of the Brotherhood, which together with Islamic conservatives won more than 70% of the seats in parliamentary elections earlier this year. Moreover, there's Abdel-Moneim Abul-Futoh, who is a former Muslim Brotherhood member who was expelled when he decided to run for president at a time when the group had stated it would not field one. He is a consensus figure due to his Islamist background and his pro-revolutionary stance. He also has the support of many liberals for his moderate religious stance and his insistence on equal rights for all citizens, regardless of religion or gender. However, the Brotherhood seems dead set against him winning.

Now we have to wait, because this is only the first big controversy in Egyptian politics. There is still the draft of the Constitution...

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